Impact of Climate Change on Agro-forestry System and Adaptation strategies, Bara Locality, North Kordofan, Sudan
Awad Elkarim Suliman Osman Khalifa *
Department of Desertification Studies and Enviro nment, Institute of Gum Arabic Research and Desertification, University of Kordofan, Elobied, Sudan.
Elamin Sanjak
Faculty of Forestry, University of Khartoum, Shambat, Sudan.
Elham Mohammed El Sheikh El Gorashi
Department of Desertification Studies and Enviro nment, Institute of Gum Arabic Research and Desertification, University of Kordofan, Elobied, Sudan.
Mohamed Eltom Elhaja
Department of Desertification Studies and Enviro nment, Institute of Gum Arabic Research and Desertification, University of Kordofan, Elobied, Sudan.
Elmar Csaplovics
Institute of Photogrammetric & Remote Sensing (IPF) Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany.
Ahmed Ismail Ahmed Safi
Department of Desertification Studies and Enviro nment, Institute of Gum Arabic Research and Desertification, University of Kordofan, Elobied, Sudan.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The research was conducted in Bara locality, North Kordofan to study the impact of climate change on Agro-forestry system and adaptation strategies adopted by local community. Moreover, the research is intended to study the role of improved seeds and plantation of A. senegal on increasing the resilience of local community to adapt with climate change event, and detrimental factors for adoption of adaptation strategies among local community. The primary data was collected through direct interview with local people, group discussions with key informants, observations and metrological station of Bara locality. A random sample of 85 respondents was selected from four villages in Bara Locality. The secondary data were collected from the project reports and relevant studies. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test and binary logistic regression by using (SPSS). The results showed general trend of decreasing amount of rainfall (R² = 0.094) and general trend of increasing degrees of temperature (R² = 0.76) according to the analysis of metrological data for the last 10 years. T-test analysis for crop productivity revealed reduction in production of the agricultural crops (Millet, sorghum, sesame, and Roselle) significantly at (p≤0.05). The Gum Arabic production was significantly decreased at (p≤0.05) in the study area. The effect of climate change on range land and animal production are represented in deterioration of range lands (80.7%), animal mortality (72.9%) and changing of stock structure (2.1%). Improved seeds and plantation of Acacia senegal as adaptation strategies have a significant positive effect in increasing agricultural crop production and increasing areas, population of Acacia senegal and Gum Arabic production. The logistic regression model revealed that the extension services, gender, and areas of Acacia senegal are the main significant factors determining the household choice and adoption of adaptation strategies at (p≤0.05). The main conclusion drawn from this study is the fact that climate change is recognized as a real challenge for the sustainable livelihood of local communities in the study area. The study recommended that intervention of the different governmental and non governmental institutions to enhance the locally driven adaption options of local communities.
Keywords: Climate change, agro-forestry system, adaptation strategies, Acacia Senegal, agriculture, Sudan